Kostas Arvanitopoulos, ERT News
In the context of the Munich Security Conference that starts tomorrow, the Professor of International Politics Costandinos Arvanitopoulos comments on the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Russian strategy and the Western security posture.
“The war in Ukraine enters its second and more complicated phase, with the Russians having failed in the first round and reviewing their objectives. Essentially, they have drawn a line of defence around the eastern territories and Crimea. There, Ukraine finds its harder to push them back and the Russians have of course a long tradition in long term attrition and prepare for a prolonged war. These conditions present challenges for the West, rallying support for Ukraine to withstand the war. The resilience of Western unity cannot be taken for granted and cohesion will be continuously tested over time.
The West must no doubt review its own strategic posture, as the war enters its second phase. The objectives now are less clear, as this is no longer about pushing back on an invasion – that was successfully accomplished – but a question of whether it is possible to push Russia out of every inch of Ukrainian territory. The question is whether a Russian defeat in battle that will undermine Putin’s hold on power is possible. The review of western objectives is negotiated in the context of war and, whether we admit this or not, the West has specific interests.
As far as the focus is on Ukrainian deterrence capability, we are likely to have a solid Western front. There is a second and more problematic dimension of unity, which related to the American leadership of the West, where objectives may diverse, particularly as regards to diverging visions on the future of Europe’s security architecture in the aftermath of the war. Therein, the position of Russia and China will need to be renegotiated and developing a common strategic position on the matter as the final stage of the war evolves will be a challenge.
What happens next is the difficult and critical challenge, as well as what is the way out for for Russia, how this power finds its new place in the European security architecture as a new cold war with China develops. These questions must find an answer and frame anew strategy. That is the problem.”