Professor Alexander Cooley was interviewed on the State of Play of the Russo-Ukrainian War by the Sunday edition of the Greek opinion leader, To Vima, at the Institute of International Relations (IDIS). Professor Cooley featured recently at IDIS Flagship annual event, the 2023 Athens Security Forum.
Time, he argues, works against Kyiv’s as the war of attrition with Russia continues, both from a military and a political perspective.
Militarily, the 2023 Ukrainian offensive did not yield the desired results as Russia is able to bear the brunt of human casualties, taking advantage of its numerical superiority. The Russian industry is now working full steam to support the war effort and its annual budget surpasses the size of American resources in the Iraq campaign. Russian production outpaces western “donations” to Ukraine by a factor of 10:2.
Politically, the victory of a neo-isolationst Trump is becoming a likely prospect, which will bring Washington closer to Budapest than Brussels. Furthermore, the war in Gaza undermines the moral high ground of the West. That means the United States is likely to shift towards a transactional paradigm in foreign policy in which Ukraine will not be high on the priority agenda. Meanwhile, the Russian economy is holding its ground.
Alexander Cooley is the Claire Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and formerly the Director of the Harriman Institute for the Study of Russia, Eurasia and Eastern Europe at Columbia University.